New Book: ‘Water, Energy, and Environment – A Primer’

After a long hiatus from blogging while I worked on a new book, I am pleased to announce that the book ‘Water, Energy, and Environment – A Primer’ will be published by International Water Association Publishing (IWAP) on February 18th (2019). It will be available in both printed and digital form, and the digital version will be downloadable for free as an Open Access (OA) document.

To access the free digital version go to IWAP’s OA website on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IWAP_OA.

Attached below is front material from the book, its preface and table of contents. Designed to serve as a basic and easily read introduction to the linked topics of water, energy, and environment, it is just under 200 pages in length, a convenient size to throw into a folder, a briefcase, or a backpack. Its availability as an OA document means that people all over the world with access to the internet will have access to the book and its 10 chapters.

With the completion of the book I plan to return to a regular schedule of blogging.
…………………………..
Contents
Preface ………………………………….. xi
Acknowledgement ……………………….. xv
Acronyms ……………………………… xvii
Epigraph ……………………………….. xxi
Chapter 1
Water and its global context …………………. 1
1.1 Earth’s Water Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Saline Water and Desalination Processes . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.3 Energy Requirements and Costs of Desalination . . . . . 5
1.4 Demand for Freshwater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.5 Implications of Limited Access to Freshwater . . . . . . . . . 9
1.6 Actions to Increase Access to Freshwater . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.7 Gender Equity Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Chapter 2
Energy and its global context ……………….. 13
2.1 Energy’s Role in Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2 Energy Realities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.3 What is Energy? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.4 Energy Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.4.1 Important questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.4.2 How is energy used? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.4.3 Electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Chapter 3
Exploring the linkage between water
and energy ……………………………….. 23
3.1 Indirect Linkages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2 The Policy Linkage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.3 The Conundrum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.4 Addressing the Conundrum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.5 The Need for Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Chapter 4
Energy production and its consequences for
water and the environment …………………. 29
4.1 Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.2 More on Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.3 Environment and Religion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4.3.1 The theocentric worldview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4.3.2 The anthropocentric worldview . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.3.3 Other worldviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Chapter 5
Energy options ……………………………. 37
5.1 Fossil Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
5.2 Nuclear Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.3 Geothermal Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.4 The Sun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.5 Energy Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
5.5.1 Energy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
vi Water, Energy, and Environment – A Primer
5.5.2 Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
5.5.3 Saving energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
5.5.4 Accelerating implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
5.5.5 Energy Star . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
5.5.6 The lighting revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
5.5.7 Energy efficiency in buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5.5.7.1 Zero energy buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5.5.7.2 Electrochromic windows . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5.6 Energy Efficiency in Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5.7 Energy Efficiency in Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Chapter 6
Fossil fuels ………………………………. 61
6.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
6.1.1 Carbon capture and sequestration . . . . . . . . . . 63
6.1.2 A conundrum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
6.2 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
6.2.1 Oil spills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
6.2.2 Peak oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
6.3.1 Methane hydrates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
6.3.2 Fracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Chapter 7
Nuclear power ……………………………. 85
7.1 Nuclear Fission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
7.1.1 Fission fundamentals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
7.1.2 Introduction to nuclear issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
7.1.3 Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
7.2 Nuclear Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
7.2.1 Fusion fundamentals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
7.2.2 Numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
7.2.3 Barriers to Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
7.2.4 Pros and cons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
7.2.5 Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Chapter 8
Renewable energy ………………………… 97
8.1 The Sun’s Energy Source and Radiation
Spectrum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
8.2 Direct Solar Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
8.2.1 Photovoltaics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
8.2.2 Concentrating solar power (CSP) . . . . . . . . . . 108
8.2.2.1 Power tower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
8.2.2.2 Linear concentrator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
8.2.2.3 Dish engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
8.2.2.4 CSTP history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
8.2.2.5 Advantages and disadvantages . . . 112
8.2.2.6 Thermal storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
8.2.2.7 Current status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
8.2.2.8 Concentrating photovoltaics (CPV) . 115
8.3 Solar Power Satellite (SPS) System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
8.4 Hydropower and Wind Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
8.4.1 Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
8.4.2 Wind energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
8.4.2.1 Onshore wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
8.4.2.2 History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
8.4.2.3 An onshore limitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
8.4.2.4 Offshore wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
8.5 Biomass Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
8.5.1 Sources of biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
8.5.2 Wood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
8.5.3 Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
8.5.4 Algae . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
8.5.5 Biochar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
8.5.6 The future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
8.6 Geothermal Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
8.6.1 Sources of geothermal energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
8.6.2 Manifestations of geothermal energy . . . . . . . 135
8.6.3 Uses of geothermal energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
8.6.3.1 Geothermal power generation . . . . . 136
8.6.3.2 Ground-source heat pumps . . . . . . . 138
8.6.4 An unusual source of geothermal energy . . . . 140
Ocean Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
8.7.1 Wave energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
8.7.1.1 Wave energy conversion
devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
8.7.1.2 Potential and pros and cons . . . . . . . 143
8.7.2 Ocean current energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
8.7.3 Tidal energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
8.7.3.1 Barrage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
8.7.3.2 History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
8.7.3.3 Environmental impacts . . . . . . . . . . . 147
8.7.4 Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) . . 147
8.7.4.1 Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
8.7.4.2 OTEC technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
8.7.4.3 Other cold water applications . . . . . . 149
8.7.4.4 OTEC R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Chapter 9
Energy storage …………………………… 151
9.1 Storage and Grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
9.2 Types of Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
9.2.1 Traditional and advanced batteries . . . . . . . . . 153
9.2.1.1 Lead–acid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
9.2.1.2 Sodium sulfur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
9.2.1.3 Nickel–cadmium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
9.2.1.4 Lithium-ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
9.2.1.5 Supercapacitors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
9.2.2 Flow batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
9.2.3 Flywheels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
9.2.4 Superconducting magnetic energy
storage (SMES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
9.2.5 Compressed air energy storage (CAES) . . . . 159
9.2.6 Pumped storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
9.2.7 Thermal storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
9.3 Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
9.4 Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
9.5 Fundamental Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Chapter 10
Policy considerations …………………….. 165
10.1 Important Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
10.1.1 Is there a physical basis for understanding
global warming and climate change? . . . . . . 166
10.1.2 Is there documented evidence for global
warming and climate change? . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
10.1.3 Can global warming and climate change be
attributed to human activities, and what are
those activities? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
10.1.4 What are the potential short- and long-term
impacts of global warming and climate
change with respect to water supply,
environment, and health? What is the
anticipated time scale for these
impacts? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
10.1.5 What can be done to mitigate the onset
and potential impacts of global warming
and climate change? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
References ……………………………… 183
Index …………………………………… 189

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Preface
This book springs from my strong conviction that clean water and clean energy are the critical elements of long-term global sustainable development. I also believe that we are experiencing the beginning of an energy revolution in these early years of the 21st century. Providing clean water requires energy, and providing clean energy is essential to reducing the environmental impacts of energy production and use. Thus, I see a nexus – a connection, a causal link – among water, energy, and environment. In recent years we have adopted the terminology of the water-energy nexus for the intimate relationship between water and energy, and similarly we can apply the term nexus to the close connections among water, energy, and environment. Thisuse of the term nexus can be, and has been, extended to include the related issues of food production and health. Dealing with, and writing about, a two-element nexus is difficult enough. In this book, I will limit my analysis and discussion to the three-element water -energy-environment nexus and leave the discussion of other possible nexus elements to those more qualified to comment.

This book also springs from my observation that while there are many existing books of a more-or-less technical nature on the three elements of this nexus, a book addressing each of them and their interdependencies in a college-level primer for a broad global and multidisciplinary audience would be valuable. Consideration of these and related issues, and options for addressing them, will be priorities for all levels of government. They will also be priorities for many levels of the
private sector in the decades ahead, both in developing and developed nations. A handbook-style primer that provides an easily read and informative introduction to, and overview of, these issues will contribute broadly to public education. It will assist governments and firms in carrying out their responsibilities to provide needed services and goods in a sustainable manner, and help to encourage young people to enter these fields. It will serve as an excellent mechanism for exposure of experts in other fields to the issues associated with the water-energy-environment nexus. Further, in addition to the audiences mentioned above, target audiences include economists and others in the finance communities who will analyze and provide the needed investment funds, and those in the development community responsible for planning and delivering services to underserved populations.
The book is organized as follows: the first chapter will be devoted to the concept of nexus and how the three elements, water, energy, and environment, are inextricably linked. This recognition leads to the conclusion that if society is to optimize their contributions to human and planetary welfare they must be addressed jointly. No longer must policy for each of these elements be considered in its own silo. Chapters 2 and 3 will be devoted to spelling out global contexts for water and energy issues, respectively. Chapter 4, on related environmental issues, will address the issues of water contamination, oil spills, fracking, radioactive waste storage, and global warming/
climate change. Chapter 5 will be a discussion of energy efficiency – i.e., the wise use of energy – and its role in limiting energy demand and its associated benefits. Chapter 6 will focus on the basics of fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas – which today dominate global energy demand. Chapter 7 will discuss nuclear-fission-powered electricity production, which today accounts for 10% of global electricity. It will also discuss the prospects for controlled nuclear fusion. Chapter 8 will discuss the broad range of renewable energy technologies – wind, solar,hydropower, biomass, geothermal, ocean energy – which are the basis of the now rapidly emerging energy revolution. Chapter 9 will discuss the closely related issue of energy storage. Finally, Chapter 10 will address
policy issues associated with water, energy, and environment, discuss policy history and options, and provide recommendations.

A bit of history – circa October 1995

While going through some files recently I came across several articles from my days in the Bill Clinton Administration, first as Associate Deputy Assistant Secretary and then as Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for DOE’s Office of Utility Technologies (OUT). This Office had responsibility for developing the full range of renewable electric technologies as well as hydrogen and energy storage technologies. In reading these articles twenty years later I am struck by how my words were in many ways the same then as now. What has changed is the development status of the technologies, their costs, the extent of their deployment, and the enhanced understanding of global warming and its implications for climate change. I have selected two of these articles for republishing in this blog. The first, from 1995, is republished below to provide a bit of historical context for the changes that are occurring today in our energy systems. It was part of a newsletter set up to improve communications between the leadership and staff of OUT. The second, from 1997, will be published in my next blog post. In a subsequent blog post I will offer my thoughts on what Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President could mean for U.S. energy and environmental policies and programs.

………………………………………………………….

From the Desk of the ADAS:
Allan Hoffman
October 1995

”A vision helps us stick to our beliefs and keep going in the face of resistance, chaos, uncertainty and the
inevitable setbacks. ”

In thinking about what to say in this piece, I realized that much of what I say in speeches outside of the
Department is often not shared with my OUT colleagues. So, given this opportunity, let me share some of my
thoughts on the “vision thing” and related ideas that I often introduce in my presentations. Your comments
and reactions will be appreciated – whether by e-mail. memo, telephone or hallway conversation.

I sometimes begin my remarks by observing that it has been approximately one generation since the Oil Embargo of 1973, the point at which world attention began to focus intensively on energy issues. An often quoted rule-of-thumb is that it takes about a generation for new ideas to begin to penetrate the mainstream. This is the point we find ourselves at today for non-hydro renewable electric technologies. Considerable progress has occurred over the past two decades in improving technological performance and reducing associated energy costs of wind, photovoltaic, solar thermal, biomass and geothermal energy systems – e.g., at least a five-fold decrease in the cost of PV electricity, and the availability of highly reliable wind turbines that can generate electricity at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour in moderate wind regimes. This has brought us to a point where, under certain conditions, renewable technologies can be the low cost option for generating power, presaging significant deployment of these technologies in developed as well as developing countries. In addition, increased deployment of renewables is being driven by concern for the environment (e.g., global climate change) and energy security, and the recognition that widespread use of renewables represents markets in the trillions of dollars. To put some numbers into the discussion, the World Bank has estimated that, over the next 30-40 years, developing countries alone will require 5,000,000 megawatts of new generating capacity. This compares with a total world capacity of about 3,000,000 megawatts today. At a capital cost of $1-2,000 per kilowatt, this corresponds to $5-10 trillion, exclusive of associated infrastructure costs. It is the size of these numbers that is generating increased interest in renewables by businesses and the in- vestment community. It is also the reason for the increasing global competition for renewable energy markets. In addition, and very importantly, the environmental implications of that much capacity using fossil fuels, even in the more benign form of natural gas, are severe. If we are to minimize adverse local and global environmental impacts from the inevitable powering up of developing nations, renewable or other forms of non-polluting and non-greenhouse-gas-emitting power systems must be widely used. In the minds of some nuclear power offers a solution, but the scale of nuclear power plants is often not consistent with the needs or financial condition of developing nations, and the social issues that come with the associated handling of plutonium and radioactive wastes need to be carefully considered by society before it embarks on this path.

Given these considerations the prospect that fossil fuel supplies will begin to diminish before the middle
of the next century, and the need to move to sustainable economic systems, I see no alternative to a gradual
but inevitable transition to a global energy system largely dependent on renewable energy. Previous energy
transitions, e.g., from wood to coal and coal to oil, have taken 50 to 100 years to occur, and I see no
difference in this case. I also believe that over this time period, hydrogen will emerge as an important energy
carrier to complement electricity, given its ability to be used in all end use sectors and its benign
environmental characteristics. In this vision, all renewables will be widely used: biomass for fuels and power
generation, geothermal in selected locations for power generation and direct heating, and wind, hydro,
photovoltaics and solar thermal (in its various flavors) for power generation. Particular applications will be
tailored to’particular local situations. Large amounts of renewable power generated in dedicated regions
(e.g., wind in the Midwest and solar in the Southwest) will be transmitted thousands of miles over high voltage
DC power lines to distant load centers. And, electricity and the services it provides will be available to almost
every one on the planet.

One final word: why is it important to have a vision? My answer is that at the beginning of a major transition, one that will surely be resisted by well-entrenched and powerful vested interests, there will be a certain amount of chaos, a large degree of uncertainty, and setbacks. In the words of the late author Barbara Tuchman, “In the midst of events there is no perspective.” This places a heightened responsibility on the OUT staff and others to keep up their efforts to continue improving the technologies and reducing their costs. A vision helps us stick to our beliefs and keep going in the face of the resistance, chaos, uncertainty and the inevitable setbacks.
Without vIsion, very few transformational events in human history would have occurred.

Financing the Growth of Renewable Energy in Scotland

This is a follow-up to my previous blog post ‘The Exciting Changes Taking Place in Scotland’s Energy System’ that discusses how Scotland’s already impressive and steadily increasing deployment of renewable energy systems is being financed.  While technology costs  will always be an important part of the total cost of deploying renewable energy systems, as these costs come down with technological advances, large scale manufacturing, and increased deployment experience, financing costs imposed by lending institutions, whether private or public, take on increasing  importance.  Financing of emerging technology options has always been recognized as a critical barrier, and demonstrating the ‘bankability’ of proposed projects requires careful attention in the planning phases. Finance issues are a major focus of the annual meeting of Scottish Renewables, the representative body of the Scottish renewable energy industry since 1996. It has over 300 members and member organisations, ranging across all technologies and supply chains.

As reported in the previous blog post, Scotland now generates enough wind energy to meet its entire residential electricity demand, and renewables are Scotland’s largest source of electrical power, with much more to come. How this came about is a case study in the importance of national policy in support of renewable generation, a policy still needing implementation in the United States.

Scotland, a separate country with its own parliament even though formally a part of the United Kingdom, has set two important energy goals: to achieve 100% renewable electricity generation by 2020 and achieve zero carbon emissions from all power generation by 2030. In support of these goals the Scottish Government has set up several financing programs that offer assistance to renewable energy projects in both the planning and deployment phases. These include the Scottish Government Community and Renewable Energy Scheme (CARES), Scottish Investment Bank’s Renewable Energy Investment Fund (REIF), and Home Energy Scotland. Community Energy Scotland is a registered charity that provides practical help for communities on green energy development and energy conservation. It is supported separately by local communities. Each program is described briefly below.

CARES is a loan fund established in 2011 “..to provide loans toward the high risk, pre-planning consent stage of renewable energy projects which have significant community engagement and benefit.” It is managed by localenergyscotland.org on behalf of the Scottish Government. A part of CARES, the Local Energy Challenge Fund, was established more recently “..to demonstrate the value and benefit of local low-carbon energy economies.”

CARES financing is designed to to support high-risk early planning stages widely recognized as principal barriers for resource-limited small businesses and community groups. Its key features include:
– financing of initial planning of any renewable energy project up to 5MW in size in a competitive process
– unsecured loans of up to £150,000 (£1 = $1.55) for up to 90% of project costs
– a fixed interest rate of 10%

Phase 1 of the Local Energy Challenge Fund attracted 114 applications and 17 were funded. Phase 2 is currently underway. Phase 1 projects include a community district heating scheme, community use of hydrogen, ground source heat pump projects, and development of community microgrids.

The Renewable Energy Investment Fund, established in 2012, supports projects at the demonstration and commercialization stage that
“- Deliver energy from a renewable source, reduce the cost of renewable energy or provide key solutions for renewable energy generation
– Provide benefit to the economy of Scotland
– Have a demonstrable funding gap for REIF to consider
– Be at a sufficient stage of development to require REIF funding before March 2016”

Some of the project types that REIF can support include marine energy, community owned renewables, and renewable district heating. The REIF team also provides technical advice and assistance in finding other funding sources. Its £103 million fund is available to provide commercially priced loans, equity investments, and loan guarantees. Initial projects include
– a £735,000 loan to the Islay Energy Community Benefit Society to install a community owned, 330KW wind turbine on the island,
– a £615,000 loan to a village in Stirlingshire in support of their efforts to become a zero-carbon, zero-waste community,
– a £700,000 loan to support the first phase of the 0.5MW Shetland Tidal Array, and
– a £250,000 loan to support development of the AWS-III wave energy device.

Home Energy Scotland provides up to 75% of the total cost of installing a renewable energy system up to £10,000, and up to 100% of the total cost of connecting to a district heating scheme up to £5,000. Loans are available to owner occupiers in Scotland for existing and new residential buildings. Loan amounts and repayment schedules vary by technology – e.g., the maximum loan amount for installation of a PV system is £2,500 and a maximum loan repayment period of 5 years, while the maximums for installation of a ground source to water heat pump are £10,000 and 12 years. In all cases a Green Deal Assessment of the proposed project is required and installers must be certified.

Community Energy Scotland supports community-owned projects by providing funding for feasibility studies, planning, community consultation, and help in finding funding sources. Supported projects include energy audits, energy efficiency improvements, micro-renewables installations, and installation of wind turbines.

All of the above paints a clear and exciting picture of a country committed to a clean energy future that is willing to back up its words with substantial and ongoing budgets. Scotland may thus prove to be an example to the rest of the world as we leave the fossil fuel era and move into the new era of renewable energy.

Documenting the 1970s – Part 1 of 2

A theme that has emerged in some of my recent blog posts is that many useful thoughts on renewable energy policy were formulated in the late 1970s, but that the U.S. was slow to pick up on the opportunities (e.g., see ‘A Personal View’). In the course of reviewing materials long-stored in my basement files I have found quite a few documents that were published at that time that support this theme, and I will use this blog to make sure that some of them are easily available.

The first of two documents I will post is the June 20, 1979 message sent by President Carter to the U.S. Congress that outlined “..the major elements of a national solar strategy.” It was based on the DPR (Domestic Policy Review of Solar Energy) that had been delivered to the President six months earlier. It shows that President Carter understood the importance of committing “..to a society based largely on renewable sources of energy” way back when. He deserves great credit for this foresight, which unfortunately was not shared by his successor in the White House.

image

The attached document is quite long, for which I apologize, but well worth reading. It demonstrates that U.S. thinking about energy was quite advanced more than three decades ago, and that it is only in recent years, under President Obama, that we have started to seriously implement those long-ago ideas and proposed policies. It is a shame and national disgrace that it has taken so long to do this, and dispiriting to comprehend what could have been accomplished but wasn’t. However, as we say, better late than never.

Further early discussion of these ideas will be presented in the follow-up post ‘Documenting the 1970s – Part 2 of 2′.

……………………………………,,,,,

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

June 20, 1979

Office of the White House Press Secretary
THE WHITE HOUSE
TO THE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES:
On Sun Day, May 3, 1978 we began a national mobilization in our country toward the time when our major source~ of
energy will be derived from the sun. On that day, I committed our Nation and our government to developing an aggressive
policy to harness solar and renewable sources of energy. I ordered a major government-wide review to determine how
best to marshal the tools of the government to hasten the day when solar and renewable sources of energy become our
primary energy resources. As a result of that study, we are now able to set an ambitious goal for the use of solar energy
and to make a long term commitment to a society based largely on renewable sources of energy. In this Message I will outline
the major elements of a national solar strategy. It relies not only on the Federal government, both Executive and Congress,
but also on State and local governments, and on private industry, entrepreneurs, and inventors who have already given us significant progress in the availability of solar technologies. Ultimately, this strategy depends on the strength of the American people’s commitment to finding and using substitutes for our diminishing supplies of traditional fossil fuels.

Events of the last year — the more than 30% increase in the price of oil we import and the supply shortage caused
by the interruption of oil production in Iran — have made the task of developing a national solar strategy all the more
urgent, and all the more imperative. More than ever before, we can see clearly the dangers of continued excessive reliance on oil for our long-term future security. Our energy problem demands that we act forcefully to diversify our energy supplies, to make maximum use of the resources we have, and to develop alternatives to conventional fuels. Past governmental policies to control the prices of oil and natural gas at levels below their real market value have impeded development and use of solar and renewable resource alternatives. Both price controls and direct subsidies that the government has provided to various existing energy technologies have made it much more difficult for solar and renewable resource technologies to compete. In April of this year I announced my decision to begin the process of decontrolling domestic oil prices. Last November, I signed into law the Natural Gas Policy Act which
will bring the price of that premium fuel to its true market level over the next five years. Together, these steps will
provide much-needed incentives to encourage maximum exploration and production of our domestic resources. They provide
strong incentives to curb waste of our precious energy resources. Equally important, these steps will help solar and renewable resource technologies compete as the prices of oil and natural gas begin to reflect their real market value.
Consumers will see more clearly the benerits of investing in energy systems for which fuel costs will not escalate each year. Industry can plan and invest with more certainty, knowing the market terms under which their products will compete.

We must further strengthen America’s commitment to conservation. We must learn to use energy more effiCiently and productively in our homes, our transportation systems and our industries. Sound conservation practices go hand in hand with a strong solar and renewable resource policy. For example, a well-designed and well-insulated home is better able to make use of solar power effectively than one which is energy inefficient. We must also find better ways to burn and use coal — a fossil fuel which we have in abundance. Coal must and will be a key part of a successful transition away from oil. We must and will do more to utilize that resource. Solar energy and an increased use of coal will help in the near and mid-term to accelerate our transition away from crude oil.

But it is clear that in the years ahead we must increasingly rely on those sources of power which are renewable. The
transition to widespread use of solar energy has already begun. Our task is to speed it along. True energy security —
in both price and supply — can come only from the development of solar and renewable technologies. In addition to fundamental
security, solar and renewable sources of energy provide numerous social and environmental benefits. Energy from the sun is clean and safe. It will not pollute the air we breathe or the water we drink. It does not run the risk of an accident which may threaten the health or life of our citizens. There are no toxic wastes to cause disposal problems. Increased use of solar and renewable sources of energy is an important hedge against inflation in the long run. Unlike the costs of depletable resources, which rise exponentially as reserves are consumed, the cost of power from the sun will go down as we develop better and cheaper ways of applying it to everyday
needs. For everyone in our society — especially our low-income or fixed-income families — solar energy provides an important way to avoid rising fuel costs. No foreign cartel can set the price of sun power; no one can embargo it. Every solar collector in this country, every investment in using wind or biomass energy, every advance in making electricity directly from the sun decreases our reliance on uncertain sources of imported oil, bolsters our international trade position, and enhances the security of our Nation.

Solar energy can put hundreds of thousands of Americans to work. Because solar applications tend to be dispersed and decentralized, jobs created will be spread fairly evenly around the Nation. Job potentials span the ranges of our employment spectrum, from relatively unskilled labor to advanced engineers, from plumbers and metal workers to architects and contractors, from scientists and inventors to factory workers, from the small businessman to the large industrialist. Every investment in solar and renewable energy systems keeps American dollars working for us here at home, creating new jobs and opportunities, rather than sending precious funds to a foreign cartel.

Increased reliance on solar and renewable technologies can also increase the amount of control each one of us as individuals and each of our local communities has over our energy supplies. Instead of relying on large, centralized energy installations, many solar and renewable technologies are smaller and manageable by the homeowner, the farmer, or the individual factory or plant. By their very nature, renewable technologies are less likely to engage the kind of tension and conflict we have seen in other energy areas, such as the problems
posed by siting a very large energy facility, or trading off between surface uses of land and development of the energy minerals that might lie below that land.

Finally, solar and renewable technologies provide great international opportunities, both in foreign trade, and in the ability to work with developing nations to permit them to harness their own, indigenous resources rather than become dependent on fuels imported from other nations.
It is a mistake to think of solar energy as exotic or unconventional. Much of the technology for applying the sun’s power to everyday tasks has been in use for hundreds of years. There were windmills on our great plains long before there were high tension wires. There were factories in New England using waterpower long before the internal combustion engine was invented. In Florida, before World War II, there were more than 60,000 homes and buildings using solar hot water heaters. The Native Americans who built the great cliff dwellings of the West understood and applied solar heating principles that we have neglected in recent years, but which are available for us to use today.

These traditional and benign sources of energy fell into disuse because of a brief glut of cheap crude oil. These years are over. That inescapable fact is not a cause for despondency or a threat to our standard of living. On the contrary, it presents us with an opportunity to improve the quality of our lives, add dynamism to our economy and clean up our environment. We can meet this challenge by applying the time-tested technologies of solar power, and by developing and deploying new devices to harness the rays of the sun.

The government-wide survey I commissioned concluded that many solar technologies are available and economical today. These are here and now technologies ready for use in our homes, schools, factories, and farms. Solar hot water heating is competitive economically today against electric power in virtually every region of the country. Application of passive design principles that take into account energy efficiency
and make maximum use of the direct power of the sun in the intrinsic design of the structure is both good economics and good common sense.

Burning of wood, some uses of biomass for electricity generation, and low head hydropower have repeatedly been shown to be cost competitive.

Numerous other solar and renewable resources applications are close to economic competitiveness, among them solar space heating, solar industrial process heat, wind-generated electricity, many biomass conversion systems, and some photovoltaic applications. We have a great potential and a great opportunity to expand dramatically the contribution of solar energy between now and the end of this century. I am today establishing for our country an ambitious and very important goal for solar and renewable sources of energy. It is a challenge to our country and to our ingenuity. We should commit ourselves to a national goal of meeting one fifth – 20% – of our energy needs with solar and renewable resources by the end of this century. This goal sets a high standard against which we can collectively measure our progress
in reducing our dependence on oil imports and securing our country’s energy future. It will require that all of us examine carefully the potential solar and renewable technologies hold for our country and invest in these systems wherever we can.

In setting this goal, we must all recognize that the Federal government cannot achieve it alone. Nor is the Federal budget the only tool that should be considered in determining the courses we set to reach this goal. The extent to which solar and renewable technologies become more competitive will depend upon the cost of existing sources of energy, especially oil and natural gas. The degree to which existing solar technologies achieve widespread use in the near term will be as much if not more a function of the commitment on the part of energy users in this country to consider these technologies as it will be a function of the incentives the government is able to provide.

State and local governments must make an all-out effort to promote the use of solar and renewable resources if the
barriers now found at those levels are to be overcome. Zoning ordinances, laws governing access to the sun, housing codes,
and state public utility commission policies are not Federal responsibilities. Although the Federal government should
provide leadership, whether or not these tools are used to hinder or to help solar and renewable energy use Ultimately
depends upon decisions by each city, county and state. The potential for success in each of these areas is great; the
responsibility is likewise. I call on our Governors, our Mayors, and our county officials to join with me in helping
to make our goal a reality.

American industry must also be willing to make investments of its own if we are to reach our solar goal. We are setting
a goal for which industry can plan. We are providing strong and certain incentives that it can count on. Industry, in
turn, must accelerate and expand its research, development, demonstration, and promotional activities. The manufacturing,
construction, financing, marketing, and service skills of American business and labor are essential. Banks and financial
institutions will need to examine and strengthen their lending policies to assure that solar technologies are offered a fair
chance in the marketplace. Universities and the academic community must mobilize to find ways of bringing those solar
and renewable technologies that are still not ready for commercial introduction closer to the marketplace. Small
businesses and family farmers also have opportunities for significant use of solar and renewable resources. They, too,
must join in this effort.

Finally, each one of us in our daily lives needs to examine our own uses of energy and to learn how we can make solar
and renewable resources meet our own needs. What kind of house we buy, or whether we are willing to work in our own communities to accelerate the use of solar energy, will be essential in determining whether we reach our goal.

The Federal government also has a responsibility in providing incentives, information, and the impetus for meeting our 20%
solar goal by the year 2000. Almost every agency of the Federal government has responsibilities which touch in one way or another on solar energy. Government agencies helped finance over one million U.S. homes in 1978. By their lending policies and their willingness to assist solar investments, these agencies have significant leverage. The Tennessee Valley Authority is the Nation’s largest utility and producer of power. It has a far-reaching opportunity to become a solar showcase — to set an example for all utilities, whether public or privately owned, of how to accelerate the use of solar technologies. The Department of Defense (DOD) is a major consumer of energy and a major provider of housing. A multitude of opportunities exist for DOD to demonstrate the use of solar.

The Agency for International Development (AID) works full time in helping other countries to meet their essential needs, including energy. Solar and renewable resources hold significant potential for these countries and, through AID, we can assist in promoting the worldwide application
of these technologies.

The Department of Energy has a particularly significant responsibility in aiding the development and encouraging the use of solar energy technologies, in providing back-up information and training for users of solar, and, generally, in directing our government-funded research and development program to ensure that future solar and renewable technologies are given the resources and institutional support that they need.

As a government-wide study, the Domestic Policy Review of Solar Energy has provided a unique opportunity to draw together the disparate functions of government and determine how best to marshal all of the government’s tools to accelerate the use of solar and renewable resources. As a result of that study, the set of programs and funding recommendations that I have already made and am adding to today will provide more than $1 billion for solar energy in FY 1980, with a sustained Federal commitment to solar energy in the years beyond. The FY 1980 budget will be the highest ever recommended by any President for solar energy. It is a significant milestone for our country. This $1 billion of Federal expenditures — divided between incentives for current use of solar and renewable resources such as tax credits, loans and grants, support activities to develop standards, model building codes, and information programs, and longer term research and development — launches our Nation well on the way toward our solar goal. It is a commitment we will sustain in the years ahead.

I am today proposing the establishment of a national Solar Bank as a government corporation to be located within the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). It will provide a major impetus toward use of today’s solar technologies by increasing the availability of financing at reasonable terms for solar investments in residential and commercial buildings. The Solar Bank will be funded at $100 million annually out of the Energy Security Trust Fund from revenues generated by the windfall profits tax. The Bank will be authorized to provide interest subsidies for home improvement loans and mortgages for residential and commercial buildings. It will pay up front subsidies to banks and other lending institutions Which, in turn, will offer loans and mortgages for solar investments at interest rates below the prevailing market rate. Ceilings on the amount of the loan or portion of a loan which can be subsidized will be set.

The Solar Bank will be governed by a Board of Directors including the Secretary of HUD, the Secretary of Energy, and the Secretary of the Treasury. The Board of Directors will be empowered to set the specific level of interest subsidy at rates which will best serve the purposes of accelerating the use of solar systems in residential and commercial buildings. Standards of eligibility for systems receiving Solar Bank
assistance will be set by the Secretary of HUD in consultation with the Secretary of Energy. The Solar Bank I have proposed is similar in many respects to that introduced by Congressman Stephen Neal of North Carolina. A companion bill has been introduced in the Senate by Senator Robert Morgan of North Carolina. To them. and to the co-sponsors of this legislation, we owe our gratitude for the hard work and sound conceptual thinking that has-been done on how a Solar Bank should be designed. The Solar Bank will complement the residential and commercial tax credits that I originally proposed in April 1977 and that were signed into law with the National Energy Act last November.

To provide full and effective coverage for all solar and renewable resource technologies which can be used in residential and commercial buildings, I have recently proposed two additional tax credits, to be funded out of the Energy Security Trust Fund. I am directing the Department of the Treasury to send to the Congress legislation which will provide a 20% tax credit up to a total of $2,000 for passive
solar systems in new homes. Credits will also be proposed for passive solar in commercial buildings. Passive solar applications are competitive today, but we need to provide incentives to owners, builders, architects, and contractors to ensure early and widespread use.

I am also directing the Treasury to prepare and transmit
legislation to provide a tax credit for purchasers of airtight
woodburning stoves for use in principal residences. This
credit would equal 15% of the cost of the stove, and will
be available through December 1982. There is a great potential
to expand significantly the use of wood for home heating. It
can help lower residential fuel bills, particularly as oil
and natural gas prices increase.

With these levels of assistance, hot water heating can
be made fully competitive with electricity. In many instances,
complete passive solar home designs, including solar heating
and cooling, will be economically attractive alternatives.

A strong Federal program to provide accurate and up-to-
date solar information to homeowners, builders, architects
and contractors will be coupled with these financial incentives. The Department of Energy has established a National Solar User Information Program to collect, evaluate and publish
information on the performance of solar systems throughout
the country. Expanding the government’s information dissemina-
tion systems through seminars, technical journals, state energy
offices, and the Solar Energy Research Institute will be a
major thrust of DOE’s program in 1980. The four Regional
Solar Energy Centers will become fully operational in 1980,
providing information to the general public and to groups
such as builders, contractors, and architects who will play
key roles in the acceleration of solar technologies.
To be fully effective, however, these incentives must
be combined with a determined effort by the architects,
engineers, and builders who design and construct our homes
and offices, schools, hotels, restaurants, and other buildings
we live and work in. I am calling upon thE deans of our
schools of architecture and engineering to do their part by
making the teaching of solar energy principles an essential
part or their curricula. The young men and women being
trained today must learn to regard the solar energy and overall
energy efficiency of the buildings they design as no less
important than their structural integrity. I call as well
on America’s builders to build and market homes which offer
the buyer freedom from escalating utility bills.

In the end, it will be consumers of this country who
will make the purchasing decisions that will dictate the
future of this industry_ They must have confidence in
the industry and in the products which it produces before
they will be willing to make necessary investments. To
this end. both industry and government must be ever vigilant
to assure that consumers are well protected from fraud and
abuse.
* * * * *
Significant opportunities for use of existing solar
technologies are also available in the agricultural and
industrial sectors of our economy. Industrial process heat
can be generated using solar technologies. Critical agricultural activities — fueling tractors, running irriga:ion pumps and drying crops — provide numerous opportunities for the use
of solar and other renewable resources. Biomass, gasohol, wind energy, low head hydro, and various direct solar technologies hold significant promise in the agricultural and industrial sectors. I will soon be
forwarding legislation to the Congress which will:
Provide a 25 investment tax credit for agricultural and industrial process heat uses of solar energy. This is a 15% addition to the existing investment tax credit and it will remain available through 1989. This responds directly
to the concern expressed in the Domestic Policy
Review that the tax credit currently provided in
the National Eoergy Act is set at too low a level
and expires too early to provide needed incentives.
These uses now account for about 25% of our energy
demand. Substitution of solar and it her renewable
resources for a portion of this energy would
significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
Permanently exempt gasohol from the Federal gasoline
excise tax. More and more Americans are learning
that a gasohol blend of 90 gasoline and 10 alcohol
which is made from various agricultural products
or wastes — is an efficient octane-boosting fuel
for automobiles and other gasoline engines.
The existing tax incentives of the National Energy Act
will continue to stimulate the uses of these teohnologies
in the industrial and agricultural sectors.
The Department of Agriculture will have a significant
responsibility for informing farmers and other agricultural
users of energy about how solar and other renewable sources
can begin to help meet their needs. The Farmers Home Adminis-
tration and other agencies within the Agriculture Department
will continue to provide financial and technical assistance
to farmers in using solar and other renewable technologies.
The TVA is demonstrating what can be done by utilities
in helping private industries, farmers, and residential
customers apply existing solar technologies. The goal of
the TVA’s “Solar Memphis” program is to install 1,000 solar
water heaters this year by offering long-term, low-interest
loans, by inspecting solar installations, and by backing
manufacturers’ warranties. In addition, the TVA’s 1.75 million
square foot passive solar office complex in Chattanooga, Tennessee will be designed to be completely energy self-sufficient and will be a model for the nation in the use of renewable technologies in office buildings.

The Small Business Administration is now operating a
solar loan program for small manufacturers and purchasers
of solar technologies. Next year, the SBA aims to triple
the amount of funds available to small businesses under this
program over the amount originally appropriated. We will
also marshal the efforts of agencies such as the Economic
Development Administration to include solar and other renewable
resources within their assistance programs.
These activities, along with the basic information
dissemination programs of the Department of Energy, will help
increase the use of solar and other renewable resource technologies in residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial buildings.

Finally, we will strive to increase use of solar energy
by the Federal government itself. An estimated 350 solar
systems will be placed in government facilities and buildings
over the next fifteen months. Energy audits of all large
federal buildings will be completed in 1979. DOE will con-
tinue to develop guidelines which take into account the
lifetime energy costs of various systems. The Department
of Defense, which accounts for about 72% of all government-
owned buildings, 1s playing a major role in the federal solar
buildings program. To date, DOD has over 100 solar projects
in various stages of completion, ranging in size from solar
hot water heaters in residences to solar heating and air
conditioning of Naval, Air Force and Army base facilities.
When all of the presently planned solar projeots are complete,
DOD estimates that they will be providing more than 20 billion
Btu’s of energy. The Federal government must set an example,
and I call upon the states to do likewise.
* * * *
The Domestic Policy Review recommended several important
changes in the direction and nature of the Federal research
and development program for future solar and renewable resource
technologies. It found that solar demonstration programs
for active hot water systems and high-cost centralized solar
electric technologies had been overemphasized at the expense
of those systems which hold wider potential to displace the
use of oil and natural gas.

As a result of the Domestic Policy Review, the FY 1980
budget for DOE’s research and development program for solar
and renewable energy sources was redirected toward technologies
such as photovoltaics, biomass, wind energy, and systems for
generation of process heat. To respond to these new priorities,
over $130 million in increased funding was provided in the
R&D program, an increase of 40% over FY 1979 levels.

While solar heating and cooling units are already being
used to meet the energy requirements of buildings throughout
the country, the DOE is supporting continued advances in these
products, by providing funds to industry, small business,
Federal laboratories, and the research community to reduce
the cost of solar systems and to improve performance. Improved
system design, analysis, and system-integration activities
are being carried out for active heating and cooling systems,
passive systems, and agricultural and industrial process
heating systems. The program also supports product improve-
ments for such key components as solar collectors, energy
storage units, and controls.
Photovoltaics, which permit the direct conversion of
sunlight into electriCity, hold significant promise as a solar
technology for the future. Research and development efforts
are directed at reducing the cost of photovoltaic systems.
In addition, new systems which produce hydrogen through
an electrochemical reaction can be used to produce electricity.
There is no question about our technical ability to use photo-
voltaics to generate electricity. These systems are already
used extensively to meet remote energy needs in our space
program. The main issue now is how to reduce the costs of
photovoltaics for grid-related applications such as providing
electricity to residential buildings over the next five to
ten years. The photovoltaic program involves all aspects
of research and development, from hardware components to
materials, marketing and distribution systems. The Federal
government has already made commitments to purchase $30 million
of photovoltaic systems at a specified cost per watt as a
means of stimulating private efforts to reduce the cost of
this technology.

DOE’s research and development program has also emphasized
wind energy. Our objective is the development of wind systems
which will compete cost-effectively with conventional technologies. There will also be efforts to develop wind technologies for small units suitable for farm and rural use and for large utility units.

Biomass conversion holds significant promise as a major
source of renewable energy over the coming decades. Liquid
and gaseous fuels produced from organic wastes and crops can
displace oil and natural gas both as direct combustion fuels
and as chemical feedstocks. Some biomass fuels, such as gasohol, are in use today. Others, such as liquid fuels from organic wastes, require additional research and development.

In the coming fiscal year, DOE will complete construction
of the solar power tower in Barstow, California. Such systems
could potentially displace some oil- and gas-fired generators.
The DOE solar thermal program is also concentrating on reducing
to near commercial levels the costs of distributed receiver
systems by 1983 and similarly reducing the future costs of
central receiver systems. This program supports R&D efforts
in advanced space heating and cooling, photovoltaic concen-
tration, and high temperature industrial heat applications.

The oceans are another potential source of solar energy.
We will pursue research and development efforts directed toward
ocean thermal energy conversion, and other concepts such as
the use of salinity gradients, waves, and ocean currents.
DOE is working with the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration to evaluate the concept of a solar power
satellite system (SPS) which would capture solar energy in
space for transmission to earth. A determination will be
made in January 1981 on whether this system should proceed
to the exploratory research stage.

DOE will undertake intensified efforts involving solar
energy storage and basic solar energy research. In the basic
research area, emphasis is being placed on the development
of new materials to better use or convert the sun’s energy,
solar photochemistry (including the possibility of using
electrochemical cells to convert the energy of sunlight into
electricity and/or fuels) and research on artificial photo-
synthesis.

In Fiscal Year 1980 we will begin building a new 300-acre solar research facility for the Solar Energy Research Institute at Golden, Colorado. This institute, along with
four regional solar centers established across the country,
will help provide a focus for research and development
activities and will become information centers for individuals
and firms who market or install solar equipment.

In addition to DOE’s research and development activities,
several other agencies will continue to support commercial
introduction of solar technologies as they become available.
AID, TVA and the Department of Agriculture now have and will
continue to have significant responsibilities in the demon-
stration of new solar and renewable resource systems.

The Domestic Policy Review identified numerous specific
program suggestions, many of which I believe can and should
be implemented. Over the course of the coming weeks, I will
be issuing a series of detailed directives to the appropriate
agencies to implement or consider recommendations in
accordance with my instrUctions.

Some of these suggestions involve detailed budget issues
which should be taken up in our normal budget planning
process. In order to provide much-needed flexibility to DOE
to respond to these — and other — suggestions, I am directing
the Office of Management and Budget to provide an additional
$100 million to DOE for use on solar programs beyond that
which had previously been identified for the FY 1981 base
program.

…………..

An essential element of a successful national solar
strategy must be a clear central means of coordinating the
many programs administered by the numerous agencies of
government which have a role in accelerating the development
and use of these energy sources. I am today directing that
the Secretary of Energy establish a permanent, standing
Subcommittee of the Energy Coordinating Committee (ECC) to
monitor and direct the implementation of our national solar
program. The ECC membership includes the major agencies
which have responsibilities for solar and renewable resource
use. By using this existing mechanism, but strengthening
its focus on solar and renewable activities, we can provide
an immediate and direct means to coordinate the Federal solar
effort. The Subcommittee will report on a regular basis to
the ECC, and through it directly to me, on the progress of
our many and varied solar activities. The Subcommittee will
be able to identify quickly any problems that arise and the
ECC will provide a forum to resolve them. Since the member-
ship of the ECC includes key agencies of the Executive Office
of the President, especially the Office of Management and
Budget, the Special Assistant to the President for Consumer
Affairs, the Council on Environmental Quality, and the
Domestic Policy Staff, direct and easy access to my staff
and Members of the Cabinet is assured.

The Standing Subcommittee of the ECC has an extremely
important responsibility. I am expecting it to provide
the leadership and the day-to-day coordinating function
which will be essential as we strive to meet our national
solar goal.
…………

We are today taking an historic step. We are making a
commitment to as important a goal as we can set for our
Nation — the provision of 20% of our energy needs from solar
and renewable sources of energy by the year 2000.

We are launching a major program — one which requires
and has received a significant commitment from the Federal
government to accelerate the development and use of solar
technologies.

We are marshalling the best that the agencies of government
can provide and asking for the commitment of each of them,
in their diverse and numerous functions, to assist our country
in meeting our solar goal.

The stakes for which we are playing are very high. When
we speak of energy security, we are in fact talking-about
how we can assure the future economic and military security
of our country — how we can maintain the liberties and freedoms which make our Nation great.

In developing and implementing a national solar strategy
we are taking yet another critical step toward a future which
will not be plagued by the kinds of energy problems we are
now experiencing, and which will increase the prospects of
avoiding worse difficulties.

We have set a challenge for ourselves. I have set a
challenge for my Presidency. It will require the best that
American ingenuity can offer, and all the determination which
our society can muster. Although government will lead, inspire,
and encourage, our goal can be achieved only if each American
citizen, each business, and each community takes our solar
goal to heart.

Whether our energy future will be bright — with the
power of the sun — or whether it will be dim, as our fossil
resources decline, is the choice that is now before us. We
must take the path I have outlined today.~
JIMMY CARTER
THE WHITE HOUSE,
June 20, 1979.

Looking Ahead 30-40 Years – A Risky Business

History has always been my favorite subject, starting in high school, and still constitutes a major part of my personal reading. Needless to say I have a strong interest in other topics as well, as attested to by my long career in science and engineering and education/mentoring activities with young people. What often fascinates me is looking back at how things have changed in the past, often in unexpected ways, and how people looking back in the decades ahead will put their perspectives on what we are doing today. This blog post is my attempt to flesh out these thoughts, while acknowledging the difficulty of looking into the future. If I look far enough into that future I will not be around to suffer the slings and arrows of projecting incorrectly, or collecting the kudos for projecting accurately. Nevertheless, it feels like a stimulating and challenging activity to undertake, and so here goes.

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Let me start by going back seven decades to the 1940s when I was a young kid growing up in the Bronx and just beginning to form my likes and dislikes and develop opinions. My love for science fiction developed at that time and was probably a dead give-away of my future career interests. An important shaping event was the dropping of the first atomic bomb on Japan on August 6, 1945, an event that I still clearly remember learning about on the radio while sitting in the back seat of my parents’ car. Without a deep or much of any understanding at that time, I somehow sensed that the world had changed in that August moment. I still feel that way after many subsequent years of reading and studying.

The following decades saw several other unexpected and defining events: the addition of fusion weapons (hydrogen bombs) to our nuclear arsenals, commercial applications of controlled nuclear fission (nuclear submarines and nuclear-powered surface ships, and the first commercial nuclear power plant which was actually a land-based nuclear submarine power plant), development and emergence of the transistor as a replacement for vacuum tubes (first using germanium and then silicon), the development of the first solar cell at Bell Labs, the development and application of laser technology, the emergence of the information technology industry based on the heretofore abstract concepts of Boolean algebra (0s and 1s), and the increasing attention to a wide range of clean energy technologies that had previously been considered impractical for wide scale application – wind, solar, geothermal, ocean energy, fuel cells, advanced battery technologies, and a broad range of alternative liquid and gaseous fuels. Each in its own way has already changed and will further change the world in future decades, as will other technologies that we now only speculate about or cannot imagine. This is the lesson of history – it is difficult for most of us to look ahead and successfully imagine the future, and one of my earlier blog posts (‘Anticipating the Future: It Can Be Difficult’) discusses this topic. In the following paragraphs I speculate about the future with humility but also great anticipation. My only regret is that I will not live long enough to see most of this future unfold.

I will divide this discussion into two parts on which I have focused some attention and feel that I have some knowledge – medicine/health care, and energy. That leaves all too many aspects of the future that I don’t feel qualified to comment upon – e.g., what more will we learn about Amelia Earhart’s disappearance, Cuba’s possible participation in John Kennedy’s assassination, and the future of the tumultuous Middle East and the countries of the former Soviet Union. My primary focus in this post will be on the latter of the two parts, energy.

To help you understand my interest in medicine and health care I confess that at one point in my career, before committing to pursuing a PhD in physics, I gave serious consideration to attending medical school. During this period in the early 1960s I was a research scientist at Texas Instruments (TI) and was excited about the possibilities of miniature electronics which TI was pioneering in. I even suggested to my TI bosses that we undertake the application of transistors and sensors to artificial vision, but it was much too early for the company to make such a commitment. Today, 50 years later, that vision is being realized.

I also see great promise in the application of miniature electronics to continuous in-vivo diagnosis of human health via capsules that float throughout a human’s blood network, monitor various chemical components, and broadcast the results to external receivers. This will depend on low-powered miniature sensors and analysis/broadcast capability powered by long-lasting miniature batteries or an electrical system powered by the human body itself. Early versions are now being developed and I see no long-term barriers to developing such a system.

A third area in which I see great promise is the non-invasive monitoring of brain activity. This is a research area that I see opening up in the 21st century as we are beginning to have the sensitive tools necessary to explore the brain in detail. Given that the brain is responsible for so many aspects of our mental and physical health I expect great strides in the coming decades in using brain monitoring to address these issues.

The energy area is where I have devoted the bulk of my professional career and where my credibility may be highest – at least I’d like to think so. Previous blog posts address my thoughts on a wide range of current energy, water-energy, and related policy issues. Recognizing that changes in our energy systems come slowly over decades and sometimes unexpectedly, as history tells us, I will share my current thoughts on where I anticipate we will be in 30-40 years.

Let me start with renewable energy – i.e., solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy. I have commented on each of these previously, but not from a 30-40 year perspective. Renewables are not new but, except for hydropower, their entering or beginning to enter the energy mainstream is a relatively recent phenomenon. Solar in the form of photovoltaics (PV) is a truly transformative technology and today is the fastest growing energy source in the world, even more so than wind. This is due to significant cost reductions for solar panels in recent years, PV’s suitability for distributed generation, its ease and quickness of installation, and its easy scalability. As soon as PV balance-of-system costs (labor, support structures, permitting, wiring) come down from current levels and approach PV cell costs of about $0.5-0.7 per peak watt I expect this technology to be widespread on all continents and in all developed and developing countries. Germany, not a very sunny country but the country with the most PV installed to date, has even had occasional summer days when half its electricity was supplied by solar. In combination with energy storage to address its variability, I see PV powering a major revolution in the electric utility sector as utilities recognize that their current business models are becoming outdated. This is already happening in Germany where electric utilities are now moving rapidly into the solar business. In terms of the future, I would not be surprised if solar PV is built into all new residential and commercial buildings within a few decades, backed up by battery or flywheel storage (or even hydrogen for use in fuel cells as the ultimate storage medium). Most buildings will still be connected to the grid as a backup, but a significant fraction of domestic electricity (30-40%) could be solar-derived by 2050. The viability of this projection is supported by the NREL June 2012 study entitled ‘Renewable Electricity Futures Study’.

Hydropower already contributes about 10% of U.S. electricity and I anticipate will grow somewhat in future decades as more low-head hydro sites are developed.

For many years onshore wind was the fastest growing renewable electricity source until overtaken recently by PV. It is still growing rapidly and will be enhanced by offshore wind which currently is growing slowly. However, I expect offshore wind to grow rapidly as we approach mid-century as costs are reduced for two primary reasons: it taps into an incredibly large energy resource off the coasts of many countries, and it is in close proximity to coastal cities where much of the world’s population is increasingly concentrated. In my opinion, wind, together with solar and hydro, will contribute 50-60% of U.S. electricity in 2050.

Other renewable electric technologies will contribute as well, but in smaller amounts. Hot dry rock geothermal wells (now called enhanced geothermal systems) will compete with and perhaps come to dominate traditional geothermal generation, but this will take time. Wave and tidal energy will be developed and become more cost effective in specific geographical locations, with the potential to contribute more in the latter part of the century. This is especially true of wave energy which taps into a large and nearly continuous energy source.

Biomass in the form of wood is an old renewable energy source, but in modern times biomass gasification and conversion to alternative liquid fuels is opening up new vistas for widescale use of biomass as costs come down. By mid-century I expect electrification and biomass-based fuels to replace our current heavy dependence on petroleum-based fuels for transportation. This trend is already underway and may be nearly complete in the U.S. by 2050. Biomass-based chemical feedstocks will also be widely used, signifying the beginning of the end of the petroleum era.

I expect that other fossil fuels, coal and natural gas, will still be used widely in the next few decades, given large global resources. Natural gas, as a cleaner burning fossil fuel, and with the availability of large amounts via fracking, will gradually replace coal in power plants and could represent 30-40% of U.S. power generation by mid-century with coal generation disappearing.

To this point I have not discussed nuclear power, which today provides close to 20% of U.S. electricity. While I believe that safe nuclear power plants can be built today –i.e., no meltdowns – cost, permanent waste storage, and weapons proliferation concerns are all slowing nuclear’s progress in the U.S. Given the availability of relatively low-cost natural gas for at least several decades (I believe fracking will be with us for a while), the anticipated rapid growth of renewable electricity, and the risks of nuclear power, I see limited enthusiasm for its growth in the decades ahead. In fact I would not be surprised to see nuclear power supplying only about 10% of U.S. electricity by 2050, and less in the future.

To summarize, my picture today of an increased amount of U.S. electricity generation in 2050 is as follows:

Generating Technology : Percent of U.S. Generation in 2050
nuclear: 5-10
coal: 0-5
Oil: 0
natural gas: 30-40
solar + wind + hydro: 50-60
other renewables: 5-10

I am sure that some readers of this post will take strong issue with my projections and have very different thoughts about the future. I welcome their thoughts and invite them to join me in looking ahead. As the title of this post acknowledges, looking ahead is risky business, but it is something I’ve wanted to do for a while. This seems as good a time as any to do so.

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